Texas Tech vs Duke Odds and Picks for Sweet 16

  • #2 Duke faces #3 Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 on Thursday evening
  • The Red Raiders are a slim 1-point favorite
  • Find the Texas Tech vs Duke  odds, preview, and betting prediction below

We’re finally getting down to the wire in the NCAA Tournament, with the Sweet 16 beginning on Thursday. In a must-watch matchup, the #2 Duke Blue Devils (30-6) take on the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-9) at the Chase Center in San Francisco. The tip-off is scheduled for 9:39 pm ET.

Duke took care of Michigan State in the Round of 32 behind a game-high 19 points from projected lottery pick, Paolo Banchero. As for Texas Tech, they ended Notre Dame’s run from the First Four, beating them 59-53.

The most recent meeting between these two programs saw Duke win 69-58 in December of 2018 at Madison Square Garden.

Texas Tech vs Duke Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Points
Texas Tech -1 (-110) -115 Ov 137 (-110)
Duke +1 (-110) -105 Un 137 (-110)

Odds as of March 22nd at Caesars Sportsbook. See all available Caesars Sportsbook promos.

Texas Tech is a slim 1-point favorite and as you can see by the moneyline odds, this is expected to be a very even contest.  The Red Raiders’ odds to make the Final Four currently sit at +440, while Duke is at +430.

Can Texas Tech Defense Lock Down?

The Red Raiders possess the second-best defensive rating in the entire nation and can lock down on any given night. They also hold their opponents to a 44% clip from two-point attempts and just 31% from beyond the arc, which should prove to be crucial against a very good three-point shooting team in Duke, who drain them at a 37% rate.

While their offense is underrated, it’s definitely no pushover. Texas Tech beat Montana State 97-62 in the first round then put up another 59 points against ND. That wasn’t the greatest performance from this group, but their main guys still stepped up. Kevin Obanor led the way with 15 points and 15 boards, while Bryson Williams and Kevin McCullar both had 14 apiece.

The Red Raiders defense is allowing just 60.4 points per contest this season and they managed to clutch up once again versus the Fighting Irish. Against an electrifying Blue Devils offense, Texas Tech will have their work cut out for them.  Their ability to slow Duke down could be the difference between packing their bags or advancing to the Elite Eight.

Duke Is Thriving

Coach K’s squad breezed by Cal State Fullerton in the first round, beating them 78-61. The Spartans did give them a scare, but Duke eventually pulled away and covered the spread for the first time in six games. Banchero, who sits at +11500 in the Wooden Award Odds, had another big game, stuffing the stat sheet in every way imaginable. Aside from his 19 points, the freshman also grabbed seven boards and dished out four dimes.

This dangerous first unit for the Blue Devils imposed their will on Michigan State, with Mark Williams, Wendell Moore, and Jeremy Roach all finishing with 15 points each as well. Points in the paint were a clear strength as per usual for this Duke group, outscoring them 44-28. That will be a challenge against Texas Tech, who does a phenomenal job at defending the hoop.

Duke comes into Thursday with tons of momentum and motivation, though. They’re looking to come through in a big way for Coach K in his last hoorah in March Madness, and the Blue Devils are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Per KenPom, Duke also has the fourth-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country at 120.3.

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Texas Tech vs Duke Prediction

This is truly a battle between an elite defense and offense. Texas Tech is No. 1 in the NCAA in adjusted defensive efficiency and will be focused on trying to shut down Banchero in particular. But honestly, Duke has too many weapons who can rise to the occasion. I think they will overcome a stout Red Raiders team. With the spread at just a point, take the moneyline.

Pick: Duke moneyline (-105)

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Author: Stacy Hoffman