NCAAB Public Betting and Money Splits for Sweet 16 – Public Hammering Duke

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  • The betting public is absolutely hammering Duke as a small underdog to Texas Tech
  • Not many bettors are giving Michigan a chance to upset Villanova
  • Below, see the betting splits (point spread, moneyline, and game total) for Thursday’s Sweet 16 games

The Sweet 16 of the 2022 NCAA Tournament starts at 7:09 pm ET tonight (March 24) and NCAAB public betting splits have been released for the first four games on the docket.

The table below shows the ATS, moneyline, and over/under handle percentage for all four games today.

Sweet 16 Public Betting Splits

Team Spread % Handle Moneyline % Handle Total % Handle
#4 Arkansas +9.5 48% +375 29% Over 155 61%
#1 Gonzaga -9.5 52% -510 71% Under 155 39%
Team Spread % Handle Moneyline % Handle Total % Handle
#11 Michigan +5 30% +175 26% Over 135.5 64%
#2 Villanova -5 70% -210 74% Under 135.5 36%
Team Spread % Handle Moneyline % Handle Total % Handle
#3 Texas Tech -1 34% -115 20% Over 137 22%
#2 Duke +1 66% -105 80% Under 137 78%
Team Spread % Handle Moneyline % Handle Total % Handle
#5 Houston +1.5 33% +105 21% Over 145 82%
#1 Arizona -1.5 67% -125 79% Under 145 18%

Note that “% Handle” is the percentage of money placed on either side of these two-way lines. For example, if a team is getting 75% of the moneyline handle, that means $75 out of every $100 wagered on that game’s moneyline has been on that team. The other 25% has necessarily been on the other team.

Betting Splits for Duke vs Texas Tech All Over the Blue Devils

The biggest percentage in the table above (excluding the over/unders) is 80%. That’s how much of the handle the Duke Blue Devils have garnered in their matchup with Texas Tech.

Notably, the Duke vs Texas Tech odds haven’t really moved, which means the sportsbook directors are confident in their assessment that the Red Raiders should be a small favorite.

Both teams have been impressive in their route to the Sweet 16 of the March Madness bracket. Duke cruised past #15 Cal State Fullerton (78-61) and then pulled away from #7 Michigan State late (85-76) in a thrilling contest.

Texas Tech breezed by #14 Montana State (97-62) and then held off #11 Notre Dame in a defensive struggle (59-53).

This is going to be a battle of the nation’s fourth-most-efficient offense (Duke) versus the stingiest defense (TTU). In general, the betting public loves backing big brands (like Duke) and is more eager to bet on good offenses than good defenses.

So as someone who has been in this business for a while, I would have been shocked if the public wasn’t all over Duke here.

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Villanova vs Michigan Betting Splits Heavily Favor Wildcats

The biggest discrepancy in ATS handle is in the Villanova vs Michigan odds. The Wildcats opened as 4.5-point favorites and have been bet up to five-point chalk. They are currently getting 74% of all money bet on the spread in that game.

For the most part, bettors have been shying away from Michigan in this tournament. They are dealing with a significant injury to guard DeVante’ Jones (whose status for the Sweet 16 remains uncertain) and faced a tough path here. They fell behind #6 Colorado State by 15 points in the first round before mounting a second-half comeback. Then they overcame a six-point deficit against #3 Tennessee with under nine minutes to play in the second round.

Villanova on the other hand has looked comfortable the entire time, beating #15 Delaware by 20 (80-60) and #7 Ohio State by ten (71-61) in a game that never really felt in doubt.

The public seems to think that Michigan has been punching above its weight so far, and it’s hard to disagree. They looked lost in the first half against Colorado State and Villanova is a disciplined, senior-laden team that will make every possession uncomfortable.

The pessimism around Michigan’s chances extend to the Final Four odds. The Wolverines are +1000 longshots to emerge from the South region. The other three teams (Arizona, Houston, and Villanova) are all between _1335 and +240.

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Author: Stacy Hoffman