March Madness Picks: Round Two Best Bets Against the Spread and Underdog Picks

  • The 2022 NCAA Tournament continues with the Round of 32 starting on Saturday, March 19th.
  • With quite a few upsets during the first round, what carnage may occur in the second round?
  • Read below for analysis on the Round of 32 slate, plus against the spread picks for several weekend games.

After a bedlam start to the March Madness Bracket, here at SBD we look to give it a go with the Round of 32. It will be intriguing to see if we can fatten our wallets come Sunday night after a solid Round of 64.

This weekend’s second round slate brings four more games to sweat as we take a closer look. Let’s see who we pick to make the Sweet Sixteen

March Madness Picks for Second Round (March 19-20)

Matchup Spread SBD Pick
North Carolina vs Baylor BAY (-5.5) UNC (+5.5)
Michigan vs Tennessee TEN (-6) TEN (-6)
Richmond vs Providence PROV (-3) RICH (+3)
Memphis vs Gonzaga GON (-10.5) GONZ (-10.5)

Odds as of Mar. 18th at Barstool and Caesars Sportsbook.


Our SBD picks are rolling a split with two underdogs and two favorites. We even went bold enough with a double-digit favorite as we ride the other side of Gonzaga. In Round One, we took the underdog Georgia State to cover and they did by a whisker.

North Carolina (+5.5) to Cover vs Baylor

North Carolina is currently a 5.5-point underdog, a number that the SBD Formula disagrees with. The SBD Formula is predicting a North Carolina cover, but a narrow Baylor win.

With how well Carolina played, especially in that first half, Baylor may have a tough time on Saturday especially early. North Carolina certainly will not go away like most teams have this year.

The Tar Heels graded out probably the best out of any team in Round 1. Did anyone expect them to come out and thump Marquette in the first half? When Carolina went up 20, that signified they were going to be one of those teams that could give a Baylor all they can handle.

The way this game goes further sideways for Baylor is if they get off to a slow start. When Kansas drilled them by more than 20, Baylor could not make a shot early. Carolina has the defense to do that. We saw that in Round One. The other question is Brady Manek and Caleb Love.

Another reason to believe North Carolina can keep this close is the athleticism from said guards. A little March Madness betting strategy goes a long way. No one expects Carolina to score 53 points in the first half but they will need to score 35-40 minimum to keep up with Baylor early.

Ultimately, 5.5-points seems like a hair too much. North Carolina can score and their interior presence is underrated enough along with their transition to give Baylor fits all game long.

Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5, 1 unit

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Richmond (+2.5) to Cover vs Providence

Our next target is the Spiders as a 2.5-point underdog versus the Friars. According to the SBD Formula, this line is slightly off. The prediction here is a tooth and nail game that could go either way. Ultimately, the formula tabs Providence to win by a single point.

This will be one of those back and forth tight games because of the way Richmond plays pace-wise (291st in NCAA). To be fair, both teams play in the mid-60’s and this may just go how the Richmond-Iowa game did to a tee. Jacob Gilyard and the Spiders held Iowa to just 36.4% shooting from the field. They are capable of that against a Providence team who can struggle mightily.

The other variable is interior play. Can Nate Watson and Noah Horchler control the boards over Tyler Burton and Grant Gordon? That may be what ultimately settles this game.


The Spiders have a greater implied winning probability than the Tar Heels this weekend (43.3% compared to 33.3%). Among the March Madness game odds, Richmond seems to possess the best chances to cover and one can make a case they can win outright to get to the Sweet 16.

Pick: Richmond Spiders +3, 1 unit

The post March Madness Picks: Round Two Best Bets Against the Spread and Underdog Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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Author: Stacy Hoffman