- The 2022 Genesis Invitational from Riviera Country Club begins on Thursday (Feb. 17th)
- Rory McIlroy has two top five finishes at this tournament in the past three years, and is fresh off a third place result in his last start
- Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets
There’s no time to bask in the glory of our Scottie Scheffler hit last week as one of the biggest PGA tournaments of the season goes down this week at Riviera Country Club. The Genesis Invitational, also known as Tiger’s tournament, tees off Thursday (Feb. 17th), and will include each of the top-10 ranked players in the world.
The event will test every aspect of a player’s game, especially off the tee, which is fitting of the tournament’s host and greatest golfer of all time. Despite all his accolades worldwide Tiger Woods never won this event, finishing runner-up in both 1998 and ’99. Unfortunately, the GOAT won’t be in the field this week but he will be on hand to present the winner’s trophy on Sunday.
2022 Genesis Invitational Odds
|Golfer||Odds to Win||Top-10 Odds||Top-20 Odds|
Odds as of Feb. 14th at DraftKings , FanDuel and BetMGM.
Our sleepers and longshots card usually starts with a golfer priced north of 25-1, but we’re making an exception this week. Oddsmakers are sleeping on World No. 5 Rory McIlroy, who comes in with the seventh shortest odds, well behind guys like Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama who he ranks higher than.
Rory a Real Value
McIlroy is fresh off a third place finish in Dubai, a disappointing result considering he made bogey on the 72nd hole to miss out on a playoff by a single stroke. He’s finished T5 and T4 at this tournament in two of his past three starts, and also has excellent track record at Quail Hollow, one of the best comp courses to Riviera.
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 28, 2022
He’s won three times at Quail Hollow, and is looking to join J.B. Holmes, James Hahn and Max Homa as players to win at both that course and Riviera over the last decade.
As mentioned earlier, this course is very demanding off the tee, which suits McIlroy just fine. He ranks third in driving distance over the past 50 rounds, and fourth in strokes gained off the tee over the past 100 rounds. He’s also an excellent scorer on long Par 4’s, which is a must at this course, ranking second behind only Patrick Cantlay on holes ranging between 450-500 yards over the past 50 rounds.
- Pick: Rory McIlroy to Win (+2200)
Casey Ready to Contend
If a course demands immaculate ball striking, both off the tee and on approach, Paul Casey is going to excel. The Englishmen has finished 12th and ninth in his past two starts overseas, and is priced way too long given his resume. He’s currently listed at +6100 in the outright market, and +400 to finish in the Top-10, but significantly more favorable odds are available if you’re willing to shop around.
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 13, 2020
Over the past 100 rounds, Casey ranks fifth in strokes gained approach, sixth in ball striking, and 12th in strokes gained of the tee. He made 16 starts on the PGA Tour in 2021, finishing T10 or better seven times. He rarely wins, unless we’re talking about the Valspar Championship, which makes him a much more attractive top-10 wager.
Pick: Paul Casey Top-10 Finish (+400)
Top 20 Value Picks
- Patrick Reed (+275): Regardless of his current form, Patrick Reed at 90-1 in the outright market and +275 to finish in the top-20 is an auto-click. It hasn’t been pretty lately, but Reed is a player who’s shown numerous times he can win out of nowhere. He also excels on difficult tracks with victories at Augusta National, Torrey Pines, Liberty National and Doral among others.
- Robert Macintyre (+350): Speaking of Augusta National, it’s another good comp course for Riviera. Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir have all won at both venues and what else do they all have in common? They’re all lefties. As is Robert Macintyre, who finished 12th in his Masters debut, and posted two top-20 results in his final four PGA Tour events in 2021.
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