- Virginia Tech is a 5-point favorite over Virginia Tech on Saturday, Feb 19
- Virginia Tech is 6-0 straight up, 5-1 ATS in its last six
- Read below for analysis and a betting prediction
Virginia Tech (16-10, 8-7 Atlantic Coast) is a 5-point home favorite against North Carolina in an ACC game at 4 pm Saturday. The Hokies have won six in a row, the second-longest winning streak in the Power Six behind Arizona (seven), after a 62-53 home victory over Virginia on Monday.
North Carolina (18-8, 10-5 Atlantic Coast) is 6-2 straight up and 4-3-1 ATS since opening the run with a 78-68 home win and cover against the Hokies on Jan. 24. The line jumped a point in Virginia Tech’s favor minutes after it was posted.
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech Odds
|North Carolina Tar Heels||+210||+5 (-110)||Over 147 (-110)|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||-172||-5 (-110)||Under 147 (-110)|
Odds from FanDuel on Feb.18
North Carolina is a 5-point underdog to Virginia Tech with the total set at 147, the largest total the Hokies have seen this season. Virginia Tech is -172 on the moneyline, which means it has a 67.7% implied win probability. The Tar Heels are +210 on the moneyline, which translates into a 36.8% implied win probability.
Revisiting Game One
Tar Heel 6’10 junior Armando Bacot made his presence felt in the paint in the 78-68 home win Jan. 24, with 14 points and 20 rebounds. Bacot was only 7 of 19 from the field, but he chased down many of those misses while getting eight of the Tar Heels’ 16 offensive rebounds.
Point guard Caleb Love had 22 points and all five starters scored in double figures for North Carolina, which shot only 35.6 percent from the field but had a 43-32 rebounding advantage and was 10 of 25 from distance.
Keve Alume brought Hokies within three on a pair of free throws with 5:36 left, but the Brady Manek (15 points, eight rebounds) keyed an 8-0 spurt as the Tar Heels regained control. Athletic forward Justyn Mutts had an 18-point, 10-rebound double-double for the Hokies and Aluma had 19 points and six rebounds.
Bacot was bothered by foul trouble in the Tar Heel’s 76-67 upset loss to Pitt the last time out Wednesday and only seven points in 26 minute. Alume had 24 points and eight rebounds in 62-53 win over Virginia on Wednesday.
Approaching NCAA Bubble From Opposite Ends
Neither team is a lock for the NCAA tournament as they enter the stretch run, although North Carolina was closer than Virginia Tech before suffering its worst loss of the season Wednesday, a 76-67 Quad 4 home loss to Pitt as a 13.5-point favorite.
The Tar Heels, who had won six of seven before that, now are projected as one the last four teams in the NCAA field. There is enough season left to stack wins, however. UNC plays ACC second-division teams Louisville, Syracuse and NC State and before closing at Duke and the ACC tournament.
After falling off the map while losing six of eight in a stretch that included the first game against North Carolina, the Hokies have revived themselves in the current six-game winning streak that includes 5- and 27-point victories over Pitt and a 62-53 win over Virginia the last time out Monday.
Virginia Tech is projected as one of the “next four out” of the tournament. It also has time to move forward. A road game against Miami is the Hokies only game against an ACC first-division team until the ACC tournament.
The Hokies are No. 36 in the NCAA Net rankings, one of the NCAA selection committee’s metrics, while North Carolina dropped eight spots to No. 45 after Wednesday games.
In a remarkable measure of the ACC’s slippage this season, Virginia Tech is 0-5 in Quad 1 games and North Carolina is 0-7.
North Carolina is 1-4 against the top six in the ACC, with only a home victory against Virginia to balance losses to Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Miami and Duke. The Hokies 2-5 against the top six, splitting with Virginia while beating Notre Dame and losing to Wake Forest, Duke, North Carolina and Miami.
#Bracketology Bubble Watch Update:
— HoopPowerAnalytics (@hoop_power) February 18, 2022
UNC vs Virginia Tech Head-to-Head Results
North Carolina has won and covered the last three and and is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS in the last five. Over the longer haul, the Tar Heels are 11-2 straight up and 7-6 ATS.
Virginia Tech is 2-3 straight up and 3-2 ATS in the last five in Blacksburg and has won the last two at home, including a 79-77 double overtime win in 2020.
“I haven’t been to a louder place this year.” 🏰🔊
🗣🔥 ESPN’s Dan Shulman pic.twitter.com/HOtFTe1BLu
— Virginia Tech Men’s Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 15, 2022
Before this season’s meeting, the last two matchups have come in the ACC tournament, both North Carolina victories. The No. 6 seed Tar Heels beat the No. 3 seed Hokies 81-73 in the 2021 semifinals, and the Tar Heels won 78-56 as a No. 14 seed in the play-in round in 2020.
North Carolina is 6-2 straight up and 4-3-1 ATS in its last eight. The Tar Heels have gone over the total in six straight games, and eight of nine. They are 3-3 straight up and 2-3-1 ATS in ACC road games.
Claim the Top Sports Betting Promo Codes Available This Weekend
The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their six-game winning streak, but only the most recent against Virginia was against a team in the first division. Virginia is 9-4 ATS at home. North Carolina is 3-4-1 on the road
Who’s the ACC Player of the Year?
There’s a clear top three who have separated themselves, @BrendanRMarks writes.
◻️ Alondes Williams
◻️ Armando Bacot
◻️ Paolo Banchero
15 reporters weigh in ⤵️https://t.co/iq9028kh4m
— The Athletic CBB (@TheAthleticCBB) February 17, 2022
UNC vs Virginia Tech Prediction
North Carolina’s biggest strength is Virginia Tech’s weakness — rebounding, The Tar Heels have a plus-7.4 rebounding margin, 16th in Division I, and the Hokies are minus-2.8. The Tar Heels have been out-rebounded three times this season and have lost each game, all to strong, physical teams Duke, Kentucky and Tennessee. Virginia Tech is not that kind of team. North Carolina is the play.
The pick: North Carolina +5 (-110)
The post UNC vs Virginia Tech Odds, Lines and Spread (Feb. 19) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.