- With Novak Djokovic’s late withdrawal, Andrey Rublev was the highest seed in his quarter, and he made good
- Rublev and Indian Wells Masters semifinal opponent Taylor Fritz have met four times before, and are tied 2-2
- Read on as we analyze their roads to the semifinals, and make a prediction.
Indian Wells was the closest tournament to Taylor Fritz’s home growing up, the one he always went to watch as a kid.
In 2021, he reached the semifinals. This year, he has repeated the achievement, and aims to go one step further as he faces Andrey Rublev Saturday.
The winner will play either Rafael Nadal or Carlos Alcaraz in Sunday’s final.
Fritz vs Rublev Odds
| Taylor Fritz (USA)||-3.5 (-160)||+170||O 22.5 (-120)|
| Andrey Rublev (RUS)||-3.5 (+115)||-200||U 22.5 (-115)|
Odds as of March 18. See these BetMGM promo codes before you bet on these odds.
Fritz Surging at Masters 1000s
Fritz had never been past the round of 16 at a Masters 1000-level event in his career – until he made the semifinals at the re-scheduled Indian Wells five months ago.
And then he made the quarterfinals again at the Paris Masters a few weeks later, defeating Andrey Rublev en route.
So this effort in the California desert is his third straight time reaching at least the final eight at this level.
Rublev – just a week older than Fritz but a lot more precocious – has done well at the 500 level. But until last year, he had only once made it to a Masters 1000 quarterfinal.
In 2021, though, he reached the Cincinnati and Monte Carlo finals, and the Miami semifinals.
2022 French Open Odds Tracker
Rublev was seventh on the list of pre-tournament favorites. Fritz wasn’t even in the top 20.
All in all, though, this is reasonably new territory for these longtime rivals.
The two have been playing against each other a loooong time.
They played on every surface as juniors, and Rublev took 3-of-4 of their matches.
Rublev Hasn’t Dropped a Set
Having Novak Djokovic withdraw late was a big boost for Rublev.
He ended up playing Djokovic’s replacement at the very bottom of the draw, No. 33 seed Grigor Dimitrov, in the quarterfinals instead of the man who will reclaim the No. 1 ranking Monday.
The Russian hasn’t lost a set through four matches.
Fritz vs Rublev Head-to-Head
|24 (Oct. 28, 1997)||Age||24 (Oct. 20, 1997)|
|Rancho Santa Fe, Calif.||Birthplace||Moscow, Russia|
|1||Career ATP Singles Titles||10|
|0||Career Grand Slam Singles Titles||0|
|No. 16 (Feb. 21, 2022)||Career High Ranking||No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021)|
|No. 20||Current Ranking||No. 7|
|$6,024,904||Career Prize Money||$10,829,376|
|12-4||2021 Won/Loss record||18-2|
|2||Career Head to Head||2|
Fritz, who played four opponents ranked higher than him during his semifinal run last fall, has yet to face a higher-ranked player this time.
But even with that, he twice had to escape in a third-set tiebreak: against Spain’s Jume Munar in the third round, and against No. 29 seed Alex De Minaur in the round of 16.
Even-Steven on the Head-to-Head
The last time Fritz played Rublev, he won. That was in the Paris Masters last November.
And the one time the American played Rublev at Indian Wells, even though it was four years ago and Fritz had barely broken into the top 100 at the time, he also won.
These are helpful signposts to have in your mind, when you’re facing a very in-form opponent.
But you get the sense they’ll both begin dominant on serve, which could mean a tiebreak to decide the first set (+250).
Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev Match History
|2021||Masters Paris (R32)||Indoor Hard||7-5, 7-6 (2)||Fritz|
|2021||Dubai (R16)||Outdoor Hard||6-3, 6-1||Rublev|
|2018||Next Gen Finals (RR)||Indoor Hard||4-2, 1-4, 3-4, 4-3, 4-2-2||Rublev|
|2018||Indian Wells (R64)||Outdoor Hard||6-4, 7-6 (4)||Fritz|
Even if the ball travels more quickly in the desert air, the oft-discussed gritty court surface slows it down.
Which means that Fritz, whose biggest weakness is his movement, has a little more time to track down that monstrous Rublev forehand.
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 18, 2022
He can also have a go at Rublev’s attackable second serve – perhaps the best chance he’ll get as the Russian will look to dictate every baseline rally.
Backhand to backhand, Fritz has the clear advantage. The serve is probably slightly slanted in Fritz’s favour.
Still, Rublev will have his ebbs and flows in the match, but he’s fairly rated the favorite to reach his third Masters 1000 final.
Best Bet: Rublev in Straight Sets (+110)
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