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Napoli vs Roma Odds, Preview and Picks – Serie A Round 33

   Published Date: April 16, 2022
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  • It’s Napoli vs Roma in Serie A on Monday, April 18 at 3:00 pm ET
  • With only four games of the season left, Napoli are just five points behind leaders, Milan
  • We preview the game, look at the Napoli vs Roma odds, and offer some picks below

It is Napoli vs Roma in Serie A round 33 on Monday, April 18 at 3:00 pm ET at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. With just four rounds of fixtures left in the Serie A season, crunch time has arrived, with third-placed Napoli just five points behind the leader, Milan. Roma, in fifth, remains in the hunt for the European places.

We preview Napoli vs Roma and offer below the best picks for this huge Serie A clash.

Napoli vs Roma Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Napoli -107
Roma +295
Draw +255

Odds as of April 15 at Barstool Sportsbook

The bookies believe a home win is on the cards here with the Serie A odds showing Napoli at -107 with an implied win probability of 49%, compared with Roma’s +295 at an implied probability of 24%. The draw also offers a decent return at +255, with an implied probability of 27%.

Over/Under and Spread

  • They list over 2.5 goals at -118 but with under 2.5 at -106, there is limited value either way.  A more appealing bet is over 3.5 goals at +215 – a decent bet when you consider Napoli is the league’s third-highest scorer.
  • If you’re new to this sport and need advice on soccer betting’s pros and cons, there are plenty of directions you can go when betting on this game and others.

Napoli vs Roma Prediction

With just four Serie A games remaining, Napoli is still in the hunt for the Scudetto title. Five points separate them and leaders AC Milan, but they did miss a massive opportunity last weekend when they were beaten 3-2 at home by Fiorentina. A win would have taken them to the top of the table and put them in with a huge chance of winning their first title since 1989-90.

As it transpired, on a difficult afternoon in Naples, the hosts were always chasing the game and despite Dries Mertens equalizing Nicolas Gonzalez’s 29th-minute opener, the seventh-placed visitors went into a 3-1 lead before Victor Osimhen scored what turned out to be an 84th-minute consolation.

Napoli Unbeaten in Four Against Roma

If there is one area Napoli could improve upon as the season enters its final stages, it’s the number of goals conceded. While theirs is the second-best goals-against column in the division, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six – conceding eight in the process. If they are to push Milan all the way, they will need some clean sheets.

One stat worth noting for the bettors – Napoli has not lost to Roma in their last four meetings.

Napoli vs Roma Head-to-Head Stats

20-6-6 Serie A record in 2021-22 17-6-9
58 / 26 Goals for / Goals against 53 / 36
49.4 Expected goals for (xG) 54.8
24.2 Expected goals against (xGA) 32.6
498 Shots 500
L-W-W-W-L Serie A form guide W-D-W-W-W

AS Roma on a Role

It has been an up-and-down season for Roma under the management of Jose Mourinho but they are finishing it strongly both domestically and in Europe. In Serie A, after a wobble at the back end of 2021, the Romans have gone on a hugely impressive run of ten games unbeaten (six wins and four draws) while also making it through to the semifinals of the new Europa Conference League.

In midweek, they overturned a 2-1 first-leg deficit in their ECL quarterfinal tie with Bodo/Glimt, winning 4-0 in Rome to win the tie 5-2 on aggregate – goals from Tammy Abraham and Nicolo Zanilol (3).

Pragmatic Mourinho Delivers for Roma

Under Mourinho, Roma has developed a pragmatic style that enables them to pick up good results even when not playing well. This was in evidence last Sunday when, despite trailing 1-0 to bottom-of-the-table Salernitana, they found a way to win thanks to two goals inside the last nine minutes – Carles Perez and Chris Smalling the scorers.

When these two met in the reverse fixture back in October, it ended goalless.

Napoli vs Roma Team Lineups and Injuries

Napoli Projected Lineup: Ospina; Zanoli; Rahmani; Koulibaly; Rui; Ruiz; Lobotka; Zielinski; Politano; Osimhen; Insigne.

Napoli Injuries: Di Lorenzo and Petagna.

Roma Projected Lineup: Patricio; Ibanez; Smalling; Mancini; Zalewski; Mkhitaryan; Cristante; Karsdorp; Abraham; Zaniolo.

Roma Injuries: None.

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Napoli vs Roma Picks

While Napoli has the Scudetto title in their sights, there are signs of them feeling the pressure and the defeat by Fiorentina will have left them deflated. Roma, meanwhile, is on a terrific run and has real momentum. While I suspect Mourinho will set his team up to earn a point, they are more than capable of winning this and at +295 are good value.

Picks: Roma to win (+295) / Tammy Abraham to score (+280)

The post Napoli vs Roma Odds, Preview and Picks – Serie A Round 33 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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Author: Stacy Hoffman