- Undefeated Rafael Nadal is the highest seed remaining at the Indian Wells Masters
- Nadal, who faces big-serving American Reilly Opelka Wednesday, remains the favorite to win the event
- Scroll down as we break down some very close matches, and find value in the tight odds
Daniil Medvedev’s reign at No. 1 in the world only lasted a few weeks, as he went out to veteran Frenchman Gaël Monfils in a third-round stunner.
No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic (who will be No. 1 again on Monday) never made it to California. And No. 3 Alexander Zverev was eliminated in his opening match.
That leaves Rafael Nadal, now 17-0 to start the 2022 season, in the driver’s seat to win the Indian Wells Masters.
ATP Indian Wells Masters Round of 16 Odds
| Matchups | Odds |
|---|---|
| [6] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) vs Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB) | -250/+190 |
| [20] Taylor Fritz (USA) vs [29] Alex de Minaur (AUS) | -115/-110 |
| [4] Rafael Nadal (ESP) vs [17] Reilly Opelka (USA) | -450/+310 |
| [10] Jannik Sinner (ITA) vs [WC] Nick Kyrgios (AUS) | -115/-110 |
| [23] John Isner (USA) vs [33] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) | -120/-105 |
| [7] Andrey Rublev (RUS) vs [11] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | -200/+160 |
| [26] Gaël Monfils (FRA) vs [19] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | +225/-300 |
| [12] Cameron Norrie (GBR) vs Jenson Brooksby (USA) | -120/-105 |
Odds as of March 16 at BetMGM
Nadal has the best odds of any of the remaining 16 players in the draw.
He was at +350 before the tournament; he sits at +140 now.
But other than his match against the big-serving Reilly Opelka, most of the round of 16 matches are expected to be very tight.
Indeed, four of the eight are basically too close to call although the one the tennis diehards are looking at involves 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz against the 35-year-old Gaël Monfils.
John Isner vs Grigor Dimitrov Prediction
Dimitrov, the former world No. 3, had never won back-to-back matches in seven previous trips to Indian Wells when he was a surprise semifinalist in last October’s rescheduled event.
He lost to eventual champion Cameron Norrie. But he defeated Opelka, Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz along the way.
Dimitrov was the beneficiary of the late withdrawal by Djokovic; unseeded, he faced a potentially tough road. But he became the No. 33 seed and moved into Djokovic’s spot at the bottom of the 128-player draw. And that also meant he got a first-round bye.
They haven’t played since 2017, but Dimitrov does have a win over Isner in three attempts. Of the seven sets they’ve played, five have gone to tiebreakers (Dimitrov’s win in 2017 was 7-6, 7-6).
It’s why predicting Isner will win the first set in a tiebreak (+250) is one the most interesting tennis props out there today.
Pick: Isner in Two Sets (+190)
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Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction
Rublev is slightly favored in this one, but he’s had a very quiet tournament so far.
He barely escaped Hurkacz in the Dubai semifinals a few weeks ago, in a third-set tiebreak.
And Hurkacz holds a 2-1 head-to-head against him.
The surface would seem to favor Hurkacz, as it’s a little grittier (and harder for Rublev to hit winners on). And the desert air means a flatter hitter like Rublev, under pressure, can have more trouble controlling the ball.
Hurkacz has only played Indian Wells twice in his career. And he made the quarterfinals both times, posting some fine wins.
Not only that, it feels as though Hurkacz, who has been quiet so far in 2022, is due for a big run.
Pick: Hurkacz in three sets (+425)
Jannik Sinner vs Nick Kyrgios Prediction
Still only 20, the certain stardom many predicted for the Italian Sinner has hit a bit of a plateau. And he also recently ended things with Riccardo Piatti, the respected coach who developed him from a very young age.
And, as gaudy as his 13-2 record so far this season is, the reality is that the highest-ranked player he has beaten was (then) No. 42 Alex de Minaur at the Australian Open.
Kyrgios on #Sinner: “Jannik is a hell of a player, he has played exceptionally well for a year and a half, he hits the ball hard. We met once in doubles and I was shocked by the ease with which he hits the ball. Of all the young players, he is my favourite” #BNPP022 pic.twitter.com/e6RxfWucE2
— Lorenzo Andreoli (@LorenzoAndreol4) March 16, 2022
Nick Kyrgios, when he’s flying, can beat the best in the world. He appears (if not 100 per cent healthy, which is normal for him) in good spirits and in fine form this week despite his current ranking of No. 132.
If feels like he’s the more confident of the two going in, and his big serve and power are a match for the young Italian.
He could well win in two sets; if it goes the distance, Kyrgios’s body (and mind) might not cooperate.
Pick: Kyrgios in Two sets (+195)
The post ATP Indian Wells Men’s Singles Round of 16 Odds & Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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